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Election race still too close to call

By Manuel Rueda, Editorial Director

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

A recent wave of polls published last week suggests that Colombia´s presidential elections will go to a second round, as neither one of the top two contenders is close enough to reach the 50% of votes required to win in the first round. 

In the latest survey published on Saturday May 8th, pollster Ipsos-Napoleon Franco has former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos coming out on top with 35% of the vote, but Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus trails closely behind with 34%.  

A survey published on Thursday May 6th by the Centro Nacional de Consultoria and CMY news has Mockus leading Santos 38% to 34%, while a poll conducted by Datexco on Friday May 7th has Mockus in the lead with 37% and Santos in second place with 25% of the votes. 

The results suggest that Mockus growth has reached its peak or that it may have been affected by interviews over the past few days in which he said he “admired” Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and another where he said he would extradite President Alvaro Uribe to an international criminal court investigating human rights abuses if the constitution “obliged him to do so.”

Mockus says the media misquoted his statements and took them out of context. Still, it appears that they may have affected his image.  Thirty five percent of respondents on the IPSOS Napoleon Franco poll said that Mockus´ statements on Uribe´s extradition made them less interested in the candidate. 

Meanwhile, Santos is appearing to have made some gains on Mockus.  In the IPSOS poll published on April 26th the former defence minister trailed Mockus by nine points, on the May 7th poll he led Mockus by one point according to this polling firm.  In the CMY Poll he trailed Mockus by 5 points on April 29 (39% to 34%) and trailed him by only 4 points on May 6, with 34% of votes compared to Mockus 38%.

 Since declaring his bid for the Colombian Presidency in early March, Santos has obtained a steady 35% of voting intent in most polls dropping to as low as 25% in some, whilst during the same period Mockus has risen from 9% to around 38%. 

Santos inability to grow prompted him to re-launch his campaign last week with new campaign colours that now resemble those of President Uribe´s U Party as well as a new logo.  

Santos also hired Venezuelan spin-doctor JJ Rendon, a famous campaign adviser throughout Latin America, who apparently has advised Santos to align himself more closely to the image and achievements of President Uribe.   

After Rendon´s arrival, Santos´ campaign team came out with a new radio commercial where a professional actor imitates the voice of President Uribe and urges voters to vote for Santos and to “continue the President´s work!”

The commercial is believed to be ethically suspect by many, as it misleads listeners into thinking that they are being addressed by President Uribe, who as the current head of state, is not allowed to campaign on behalf of any of the candidates.

Analysts suspect that this commercial was the idea of Rendon, a man labelled by many journalists as “the king of black propaganda” and who is believed by many political advisers for spreading fake rumours. 

Santos says Rendon was brought on board to “add fresh ideas” to the campaign. However his critics are already blaming Rendon for the negative attacks against Mockus, they believe these include the billboards that unfairly depict Mockus as a friend of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and as an ally of the FARC guerrillas.

Rendon was left Colombia a couple years ago, after allegedly attempting to blackmail U Party congressman Nicolas Uribe to vote on a certain law. 

Nicolas Uribe has said that Rendon threatened to destroy his career with a fake photo-montage where he appeared with prostitutes in the streets of Bogota, Rendon has denied the allegations.  Nicolas Uribe, who is a Santos supporter, is reported to have resigned from the campaign team upon hearing of Rendon´s arrival.

Time will only tell if Rendon´s tactics and Santos change of strategy will have an impact on the Colombian voters.  

For the moment one thing is clear: Santos is attempting to gain votes by personifying continuity with Uribe´s successful security policies.