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Poll: Most Colombians oppose Uribe referendum

By Manuel Rueda, Editorial Director

Monday, February 22, 2010

A recent survey by pollster Datexco shows that only 39.8% of Colombians agree with plans to stage a referendum that could enable President Uribe to run for an unprecedented third term in office.

Colombia´s constitution only allows Presidents to serve two consecutive terms in office, but this could be changed through a referendum approved by the Colombian congress late last year.

The referendum however, cannot be carried out without the approval of Colombia´s Supreme Court, and judges there are currently reviewing several accusations of irregularities committed by congress members and referendum backers as they collected signatures and parliamentary votes for this initiative.

Despite low support for the referendum, 46% of respondents told Datexco that they would vote for President Uribe if he runs in the May 30^th elections, and while that does not guarantee a first round victory -- 50% is required to avoid a second round run-off -- Uribe is way ahead of his closest competitor, former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo, who would recieve 8% of the vote.

President Uribe has not yet said if he would like to run for a third term in office, saying it is a decision that “torments his soul.”  However the Datexco poll indicates that if Uribe is not allowed -- or prefers not -- to run for a third term, the Presidential race becomes much tighter.

In elections without Uribe, Sergio Fajardo leads the pack of presidential hopefuls with 12.1% of the respondents' votes.  Former Defense Minister and Uribista, stalwart Juan Manuel Santos, comes in at a close second with 12% of the votes, and Conservative Party candidate Andres Felipe Arias, whose nickname is “Uribito” -- little Uribe -- ranks third with 6% of the votes.

More than 10 parties and political movements will present candidates to Colombia´s Presidential elections on May 30^th and analysts say six of them have a serious chance of winning the country´s top political spot. 

These include the leftist Polo Democraticos, the historic Liberal Party, and Sergio Fajardo´s movement, Compromiso Ciudadano, which is more towards the center of the political spectrum.  Right wing and Uribista parties like Cambio Radical, the Conservative Party, and Juan Manuel Santos' Partido de la U, are also top contenders.