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Santos’ lead diminishes in Gallup Poll

By Manuel Rueda, Editorial Director

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

With only a month left until the May 30th presidential elections, Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus is quickly gaining ground on the former Defence Minister Santos.

In a poll conducted by Gallup between April 24 and April 26, 34.2% of respondents said they would vote for Juan Manuel Santos in the first round of presidential elections, while 31.6% said they would vote for Mockus.  

If the survey´s margin of error of 3% is taken into account, both candidates are practically tied.  

The Gallup poll used a sample of more than 1,200 people in 60 cities, conducting interviews in person, which enables pollsters to reach poorer segments of the population who do not have access to a phone line.

Santos is perceived to be stronger in rural and poor urban areas while Mockus draws his strength from the country´s middle class. 

But there is no doubt that Mockus is gaining new supporters across all segments of society.

When Gallup conducted its poll at the end of March, Mockus obtained a mere 10.4% of voting intent while Santos was hovering around 35%. 

In the Gallup poll published this week, 47.9% of respondents said they would vote for Mockus if a second round run-off between the top two contenders was required, while 42.2% said they would support Santos.

Meanwhile, the most recent survey by Ipsos-Napoleon Franco, which was released on Monday, placed Mockus in the lead with 38% of voting intent, with Santos running second at 29%. 

As it is a close race, political analysts are not expecting either of the candidates to gain the 50% of the votes that is required to win the presidency in the first round of voting.

In a second round run-off, the Green Party and Santos will have to seek coalitions with candidates from the Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the leftist Polo Democratico and right wing Cambio Radical. 

Conservative Party candidate Noemi Sanin currently obtains around 15% of votes in most polls, while the other candidates do not have more than 5% of potential votes.